AI as a Driver of the Armenian Economy, or How Technology Can Accelerate Growth and Transform the Labor Market
03.07.2026,
15:02
Artificial intelligence is becoming not only a technological but also an economic factor, capable of transforming the labor market, productivity, and long-term growth rates.
YEREVAN, July 3. /ARKA/. Artificial intelligence is becoming not only a technological but also an economic factor, capable of transforming the labor market, productivity, and long-term growth rates. This is stated in the Central Bank of Armenia's research note "The Role of Sound Economic Policies in the Era of AI Spread."
According to IMF estimates, in emerging market economies, including Armenia, approximately 40% of jobs are highly exposed to AI. However, to achieve a sustainable effect, such countries need to close gaps in digital infrastructure, skills, innovation potential, and regulation.
The Central Bank notes that for Armenia, the key question is whether AI will complement or replace human labor. In the first case, the technology could improve productivity and decision-making; in the second, it could increase the risk of unemployment, especially among low-skilled workers.
The study examines three scenarios for the impact of AI on the Armenian economy. The first assumes limited AI adoption without comprehensive public policy. In this case, GDP could be 6.5% higher in the first decade, but then the effect fades, productivity growth slows, and the economy returns to its previous growth rate. Highly skilled workers benefit from increased efficiency, while low-skilled workers face the risk of displacement.
The second scenario involves targeted investments in AI, infrastructure, education, retraining, research, innovation, cybersecurity, and regulation. In the first decade, such investments are estimated at 0.7-0.8% of GDP per year. The economic impact could reach 7.2%, and in the long term, AI will further increase annual GDP by approximately 0.15 percentage points. The share of highly skilled workers could increase from 25% to 32%. The third scenario envisions a more profound transformation—not only investments in technology and education, but also the creation of a "labor restructuring agency" that would retrain the unemployed and help them transition to new sectors of the economy. In this scenario, GDP could increase by approximately 8.7% in the first decade, with a long-term contribution to growth of up to 0.3 percentage points.
The Central Bank emphasizes that AI is not just another technological tool, but an engine for fundamental economic restructuring. It affects not only physical labor but also analytical work, decision-making, data processing, and creative professions.
The study's key conclusion: the benefits of AI are not realized automatically. For Armenia, maximum impact is possible only with a comprehensive, human-centered policy: investments in infrastructure, modernization of education, retraining of workers, and reduction of unemployment risks.
According to IMF estimates, in emerging market economies, including Armenia, approximately 40% of jobs are highly exposed to AI. However, to achieve a sustainable effect, such countries need to close gaps in digital infrastructure, skills, innovation potential, and regulation.
The Central Bank notes that for Armenia, the key question is whether AI will complement or replace human labor. In the first case, the technology could improve productivity and decision-making; in the second, it could increase the risk of unemployment, especially among low-skilled workers.
The study examines three scenarios for the impact of AI on the Armenian economy. The first assumes limited AI adoption without comprehensive public policy. In this case, GDP could be 6.5% higher in the first decade, but then the effect fades, productivity growth slows, and the economy returns to its previous growth rate. Highly skilled workers benefit from increased efficiency, while low-skilled workers face the risk of displacement.
The second scenario involves targeted investments in AI, infrastructure, education, retraining, research, innovation, cybersecurity, and regulation. In the first decade, such investments are estimated at 0.7-0.8% of GDP per year. The economic impact could reach 7.2%, and in the long term, AI will further increase annual GDP by approximately 0.15 percentage points. The share of highly skilled workers could increase from 25% to 32%. The third scenario envisions a more profound transformation—not only investments in technology and education, but also the creation of a "labor restructuring agency" that would retrain the unemployed and help them transition to new sectors of the economy. In this scenario, GDP could increase by approximately 8.7% in the first decade, with a long-term contribution to growth of up to 0.3 percentage points.
The Central Bank emphasizes that AI is not just another technological tool, but an engine for fundamental economic restructuring. It affects not only physical labor but also analytical work, decision-making, data processing, and creative professions.
The study's key conclusion: the benefits of AI are not realized automatically. For Armenia, maximum impact is possible only with a comprehensive, human-centered policy: investments in infrastructure, modernization of education, retraining of workers, and reduction of unemployment risks.